The State of the Great Commission in MENA: Major Challenges and Opportunities

Region Overview

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the seedbed of Christianity, where it all began, and from Palestine in particular the gospel spread to the whole MENA region, and onward to the entire earth.

The disciples and the early Christians followed the commission of Jesus in Acts 1:8, where he told them: ‘You shall be my disciples in Judea, Samaria and to the ends of the world.’ The book of Acts reflects his reality of the spread of the gospel which reached the ends of the common world within the first century.

The makeup of Christian communities in the MENA region is diverse and rich in history, reflecting centuries of coexistence and interaction with various cultures and religions. While the specific demographics vary from country to country, here is a general overview of the Christian presence:

Armenian Christians: Concentrated in countries like Armenia, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey, Armenian Christians have a rich cultural heritage and have faced historical challenges, including genocide and displacement.

Coptic Christians: Primarily concentrated in Egypt, Coptic Christians are one of the oldest Christian communities in the world, tracing their roots back to the early days of Christianity. They have a distinctive cultural and religious identity within Egypt.

Chaldean, Assyrian, and Syriac Christians: These communities are mainly found in Iraq and Syria, with smaller populations in other countries in the region. They have faced significant challenges due to conflicts and persecution in recent years.

Eastern Orthodox Christians: Beyond Greece and Cyprus, Eastern Orthodox Christians are also found in countries like Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan, where they have longstanding historical roots.

Greek Orthodox and Greek Catholic: These communities have a presence in various countries across the MENA region, including Syria, Jordan, Palestine, and Lebanon.

Maronite Christians: Predominantly found in Lebanon, Maronite Christians have a significant presence in Lebanese society and have historically played a key role in the country’s politics and culture.

Protestant and Evangelical Christians: In recent decades, there has been a growth in Protestant and Evangelical Christian communities in various countries across the MENA region. Perhaps numbering over half a million in Egypt, influential communities exist also in Lebanon and Jordan. In some countries like Iraq, however, they might be only a few hundred in population.

There are a number of Anglican Christians in the region. There are also expatriate Christian communities in many of the MENA countries, especially the Gulf states.

But the outlook for all Christian communities is negative. Paul Vallely’s book, The Vanishing: The Twilight of Christianity in the Middle East, proves poignant evidence. Here are some indicative quotes:

For the first time in nearly two millennia, Iraq may soon be bereft of Christians.
The Christian faith and its followers were an integral part of the Middle East since the religion’s earliest days. Now, they are facing extinction in many of their ancient homelands.
The ancient churches of the Middle East face a mortal threat. In Iraq, Syria, Egypt, and Palestine, the crucible of Christianity is being extinguished.
The exodus of Christians from the region is unprecedented in modern times, leading to fears that Christianity in the very lands of its birth is becoming a vanishing religion.

Christians face violence, persecution, and discrimination that have driven millions of believers from their homes. Ancient communities have been dispersed, erasing the rich tapestry of religious diversity that once defined the region.

In summary, Christians face violence, persecution, and discrimination that have driven millions of believers from their homes. Ancient communities have been dispersed, erasing the rich tapestry of religious diversity that once defined the region.

While many of the factors driving this phenomenon have been present for decades, amazing changes in social and economic demographics have occurred since the last Lausanne Congress in 2010. And as we approach the midpoint of the 21st century, global transformations and internal tensions will continue to fundamentally reshape the MENA region, necessitating adaptive strategies.

Most crucial for the Christian communities in the MENA region are the complex and continually evolving factors of migration, socio-political changes, and religious dynamics. But despite the many challenges and hardships, believers in the region continue to contribute to the cultural, social, and religious fabric of their respective countries.

Between Now and 2050: Key Trends Shaping the Great Commission

Islam and Radical Politics

The rise of radical Islam, political Islamic movements, and the governing systems using Islam as their reference point have been notable and unprecedented in the last 20 years. Affecting so many countries in this region, it has been most pronounced in Egypt, Tunisia, and Sudan, while the regime in Algeria has shuttered dozens of churches. While youth are being heard more and more and Millennials were the force behind the Arab Spring, this is also the age recruited by the Islamic parties and jihadist movements to change the region at its core.

But a corresponding development has been the rise of atheism. Previously always under cover, when groups like the Muslim Brotherhood gained authority, many former Muslims began denying Islam publicly in pronouncing their atheism. Statistics have documented a surprising surge in Saudi Arabia,¹ while there may be up to 4 million atheists in Egypt alone.²

Youth empowerment

If current trends continue, by 2050 more than 300 million young people will enter MENA’s already strained job market, leading to significant unemployment. Combined with challenges like climate change and water scarcity, this situation will likely drive the youthful population to seek greater political participation and opportunities for empowerment. These demands for political reforms and inclusivity, while potentially bringing positive developments, could also cause unrest and instability in the region.

People on the move

The global population is expected to hit 9.7 billion by 2050, with notable ageing and urban demographics growth. About 65 percent of the global population will reside in urban areas, adding 2.5 billion people to cities, with MENA’s population increasing from 500 million to 724 million. This surge will strain healthcare, social security, and urban planning.

Meanwhile, radical and political Islam has caused a huge wave of migration from the region into other places in the world, with refugees flooding into Europe where at mid-2023 they reached 2.5 million in Germany, according to the United Nations High Commission on Refugees (UNHCR).

But MENA has been impacted as a refugee haven as well. Egypt has seen its population balloon to 100 million inhabitants, including between 11 and 13 million refugees, while Lebanon maintains the highest per capita rate of refugees in the world due to the Syrian influx. This unprecedented development overloads the limited local resources, but also provides an opportunity for economic growth by importing fresh money into the country and increasing its labour force.

These demographic changes have contributed to the dramatic decline in the number of Christians in the region, but also their greater number in the Gulf through its increase in the foreign worker community. With migrant communities everywhere, MENA ministry becomes global in scale.

Poverty, freedom, and religious persecution

With all the political and social changes in the region, the economic situation changed drastically, where the middle class in many countries is almost extinct³. Because of corruption, the rich are getting much wealthier, while poverty increases and national GDP and personal purchasing power⁴ have declined dramatically.

While MENA regimes have largely survived the tumult so far, as these challenges mount, non-state actors have filled governance voids, further destabilizing states.⁵ But despite these challenges, many Christian communities in the MENA region continue to demonstrate resilience and perseverance, maintaining their faith and heritage in the face of adversity. International organizations and advocacy groups work to support these communities, promote religious freedom, and address the root causes of persecution and discrimination.

Creation care and mental health

The rise in global temperatures⁶ creates competition over limited resources. Projected temperature increases between 0.8° and 3.3°C and decreased precipitation in northern MENA⁷ will exacerbate water scarcity and lead to frequent severe heat waves.⁸ Rising sea levels and increased pollution challenge the sustainability of both natural and archaeological heritage.⁹

However there has also been a ripple effect on regional mental health. Anxiety, depression, frustration, and suicide (noting that the Arab Spring began with a suicide in Tunisia¹⁰) have increased dramatically. Vulnerable populations, already reeling from political and economic instability, can ill afford this trend that threatens their core coping mechanisms.

Discipleship in a digital age

The MENA region’s diversity in economic conditions is revealed in its access to new media sources. Some nations (ie Yemen) have miserable to very poor Internet connection,¹¹ and therefore rely on traditional media like television and radio. Others exist on parallel worlds, like the UAE, which boasts the global high in terms of social media accounts per person,¹² and in 2021¹³ ¹⁴ boasted the highest Internet speeds in the world. The church must account for both realities, and strategize effectively to communicate the gospel message in both low- and high- tech environments.

Regional Considerations for the Great Commission

War and political conflict

The MENA region has been destroyed by war. Beginning with the Iraq invasion at the turn of the 21st century, through the initial hope sparked by the so-called Arab Spring, there has not been one area spared from internal or external conflict. Revolutions, civil wars, proxy wars, and coup d’états shattered the stability of nations like Tunisia in 2010, and continued to plague Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Sudan, Lebanon, and Somalia in subsequent years. Worrying for the international community, its effects have been felt over the whole globe.

External and regional rivalries

Many of these conflicts were influenced by foreign powers continuing to interfere in the MENA region. Often led, or perceived as led by the United States, as America pivots to Asia¹⁵ and the world shifts toward multipolarity with rising powers like China and India, traditional US hegemony is diminishing.¹⁶ Furthermore, a relatively equal power balance amongst regional powers, such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, and Israel, suggests a future driven by competition rather than dominance.¹⁷

The Palestinian question

Nevertheless, despite new diplomatic relations and shifting alliances as enacted in the Abraham Accords, violent conflict in areas like Sheikh Jarrah and Gaza show that the Palestinian question remains significant.¹⁸ While Israel’s war against Hamas has outraged the Arab peoples over the death of tens of thousands of innocent civilians, behind-the-scenes security and economic cooperation with the Jewish state characterizes several nations worried about Iranian regional power. At the time of writing it is unclear how this issue will resolve.

Economic dynamics

As the global economic landscape shifts toward a multipolar world, the E7 (China, India, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, and Mexico) economies are expected to outpace the G7 (US, Japan, Germany, France, UK, Italy, and Canada). MENA countries must diversify from traditional oil dependence to embrace renewables, technology, and infrastructure, capitalizing on new economic opportunities. And although oil will remain a primary energy source, the global shift towards renewables may destabilize the region’s rentier states. These nations may face increased social unrest if unable to adapt their social contracts to the changing economic landscape.

Opportunities and Challenges for the Great Commission

The last decade has been the best of times and the worst of times for the MENA region. Instability has shaken the pillars of society, but also the religious foundation of many. People are upfront about their atheism, while some are entertaining the claims of Christianity like never before.

According to the Joshua Project¹⁹, Unreached Unengaged People Groups (UUPG) among the region’s 19 countries represents 68.2 percent of the population. To reach them, the church must deal with several challenging realities.

The growth of urban populations offers churches the opportunity to serve larger congregations while providing minorities with greater anonymity in practicing their faith. However, urbanization is also transforming traditional family structures and gender roles, which in turn affects church attendance and leadership participation. To remain relevant, churches must adapt their programs to accommodate the changing demographics, including single-parent families, working mothers, and youth who are delaying marriage and childbearing. Furthermore, churches must effectively address shifts in congregational beliefs and practices to stay pertinent in an increasingly secular society.

Contextualizing church for the emerging world

Some of these shifts are being driven by youth with their new ideas and energy, which can rejuvenate church communities and enhance outreach and social justice initiatives. The growing political activism among the youth offers churches the chance to revitalize their communities. However, the traditional dominance of older men in church leadership poses significant barriers to youth and women, potentially leading to a lack of qualified leadership as the next generation takes over. Promoting leadership mobility between generations and actively involving women in all areas of church life is critical. Churches must make spaces for young people to express their faith in ways that feel authentic to their generational identity, especially in more traditional congregations. This is crucial not only for addressing generational divides but also for ensuring the church’s adaptability and responsiveness to contemporary challenges. These include, among others, contextualized theology about economic disparities, migration, and political unrest.

As stewards of creation, churches have a unique opportunity to integrate environmental care into their teachings. . . .not only preaching about stewardship but also actively participating in community resilience efforts.

One issue that resonates with many, youth in particular, is climate change. As stewards of creation, churches have a unique opportunity to integrate environmental care into their teachings. The onset of harsher climates and the development of urban slums from displaced populations will demand that churches not only preach about stewardship but also actively participate in community resilience efforts. This could include setting up support systems for environmental migrants and engaging the youth in active dialogues about theological perspectives on humanity’s relationship with nature, thus ensuring that environmental advocacy is woven into the fabric of church activities.

Unfortunately, the economic issues driven partially by climate change, but related to the political malaise as a whole, are likely to deepen mental health issues among congregants. Churches must integrate mental health resources, train clergy in psychological first aid, and form partnerships with mental health organizations. While economic diversification will bring new employment opportunities, which churches can support through professional development programs, these transformations might not benefit all equally. This will result in widening disparities within communities and increasing demands for church-provided social services. Churches need to diversify their funding sources to address the potential increase in poverty levels affecting church revenues.

Orienting church for regional service

But in regions where state structures weaken, churches may find themselves inadvertently assuming roles typically filled by governments, such as mediating disputes and providing community services. These roles, while essential, must be balanced with vigilance against non-state actors who might impose restrictions on religious practices. Churches can serve as stable community centers, offering refuge and support during times of turmoil, but must also advocate for and uphold the freedom of religion and belief amidst changing political landscapes. Furthermore, the geopolitical instability in the region can exacerbate sectarian divides, heightening tensions within and between communities. In response, churches should actively engage in reconciliation programs. These programs are vital for addressing the underlying issues that fuel sectarian conflicts and for promoting peace and understanding.

The MENA church has a key role to play here as well through its partnership in the global body of Christ. Addressing the complexities of the ongoing Palestinian crisis, local believers must model a re-evaluation of theological interpretations that historically support Christian Zionism, as it often aligns with policies that overlook the rights and suffering of Palestinian Christians and Muslims. By promoting a theology of peace and justice, churches can advocate for the dignity and rights of all people in the region, fostering a more compassionate and balanced stance that supports reconciliation and coexistence.

Within the region, evangelicals face a difficult task to pursue such cooperation with the historic churches, accused of pro-Israel sentiment as their ties to American churches often result in being lumped in with US policy. But overall as the Christian presence in the region has been dwindling, minority status and common threats have pushed the various denominations to gather and pray like never before. In Egypt, for example, the Egyptian Council of Churches represents one encouraging initiative, uniting the ancient Coptic Orthodox Church, the Coptic Catholic churches, the Greek Catholic churches, the Greek Orthodox Church, and the Protestant and Anglican churches. Once existing only between limited officials, these churches now form common committees as an ecumenical sentiment—without theological compromise—spreads at the popular level.

Demonstrating church as a home for all backgrounds

But it is still true that evangelicals are the ‘new kid on the block,’ which continues to perturb many historic Christians. In Egypt the Protestant community might number over half a million, while in Iraq they might be only a few hundreds. Their numbers are increasing, however, because of their progressive evangelistic nature, growing mainly out of the traditional Christian communities. Believers will have to balance between the strengthening of relations with all who ascribe to the Apostles’ Creed, while continuing to preach the gospel with dynamism.

And with increasing urbanization and a younger, tech-savvy population,²⁰ much dynamism can come through how technology will fundamentally change how religion operates. Churches must engage with digital platforms and embrace the technological revolution to remain relevant and effectively serve their congregations amid economic distress caused by technological disruptions.

Already the new venture of digital church has been fruitful, serving in all five ecclesial functions of worship, fellowship, evangelism, discipleship, and witness. A network has also been formed in the greater MENA region that is experiencing a great digital revival through meeting together, learning from each other, serving one another, and partnering for the expansion of the gospel in the digital world. And beyond this example, so many churches now have virtual spaces and online platforms, extending the presence of the church in society even more.

This is especially true in highly persecuted countries such as Algeria, where 48 churches were closed by state officials and people were forced to disband formal fellowship²¹. Whether for scattered believers or vulnerable Muslim Background Believers (MBBs), digital ministry provides people a way to share freely without revealing their identity.

There is a small movement happening among the Muslim majority’s believers in countries like Tunisia, Morocco, Jordan, Palestine, and Israel.

The rise of the MBB movement stems from various factors. First, advancements in information and communication technologies have broadened individuals’ exposure to diverse religious viewpoints, enabling them to explore alternative beliefs. Additionally, shifts in social and political dynamics, such as discontentment with authoritarian rule and dissatisfaction with societal norms, have prompted some to re-evaluate their religious affiliations and seek spiritual fulfillment elsewhere.

A major factor has been the rise of radical Islam. While some turned to atheism or secular commitments toward society, many went right and left, searching for hope anywhere and everywhere, not knowing that their real hope is in Christ. Churches and their ministries of mercy have done wonderful work when ISIS dominated the Levant and displaced so many. Serving the refugees and disadvantaged of all religions, believers drew thousands into church for trauma healing and therapy, and along the way communicated that Christ is their healer, their only hope. And apart from the suffering, with foundations shaken and taboos questioned, many Christians grew bold in finding freedom to share the gospel of Jesus Christ.

Even in Saudi Arabia the spiritual atmosphere is changing. Though there is still no physical church present, the country is opening toward its expatriate Christian presence, beginning to facilitate the quiet fellowship of believers.

However, it’s crucial to acknowledge the challenges that MBBs face in the MENA region. They often encounter significant social stigma, familial rejection, and persecution from authorities or extremist factions. Publicly embracing Christianity requires immense courage and resilience amidst such adversity.

Nevertheless, the growth of the MBB movement underscores the dynamic nature of local faith. It disrupts prevailing notions of religious uniformity and showcases the diverse spiritual journeys within Muslim-majority societies. We need to pray that the Lord will continue to raise up followers for him from among them, so that despite the numerical existential threat to the Christians in the region, we can still have hope that Jesus will bring about revival. A new church, from among the majority people, will rise up from the ashes of the traditional structures so that God will have glory always.

Conclusion

As the MENA region approaches 2050, it is poised on the brink of transformative changes that will reshape the societal, environmental, and political fabric of the area. Churches in the region stand as critical bastions of stability, community, and faith amidst these shifts.

To navigate these turbulent waters successfully, it is imperative that churches not only adapt but lead by example in fostering inclusivity, leveraging technology for engagement, and advocating for justice and stewardship. They must proactively train and empower a new generation of leaders who are as diverse as the communities they serve. By embedding reconciliation and public theology into their core missions, churches can bridge divides and build peace in an increasingly fragmented world.

The call to action is clear: churches must embrace their pivotal role in shaping the future of the MENA region, ensuring they remain vibrant and relevant in serving their congregations and communities in the face of impending global changes.

Endnotes

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