What are the Emerging Demographics?

Introduction

God sends the church on an unchanging mission into an ever-changing world. Like the men of Issachar,¹ Christian leaders must discern their times if the church is to effectively live out her calling. Like the Apostle Paul, we too should understand the ministry contexts to which God has called us.² This essay will look at our global context of ministry, limiting its scope to examine demographic developments and cultural dynamics. Although population growth has slowed, the population of the world is expected to increase from 8 billion in 2024 to 9.7 billion in 2050.³ Yet even more significant is the dramatic rate of social and cultural change brought about by globalization and human migration. Seven implications of these developments of the mission of the church will be highlighted.

Implication 1—Pioneer evangelism, discipleship, and church planting remain urgent tasks

This point may seem obvious, but there is a popular notion among many that pioneer mission work is no longer needed or is even inappropriate. However, there are 2.26 billion people, 27% of the world’s population, who could be considered unevangelized.⁴ In other words, one in four people in the world today remain without a viable, culturally relevant Gospel witness in their immediate community. By some estimates, there are thousands of ethno-linguistic groups with less than 2% being followers of Christ that are in need of a cross-cultural witness.⁵ Meanwhile, the growing number of Muslims, today at 2 billion, is expected to equal or overtake Christianity as the world’s largest religion by 2050.⁶ To this we might add the world’s 1.1 billion Hindus, 893 million “nonreligionists,” and 550 million Buddhists, the majority of whom have never heard a meaningful presentation of the Gospel.⁷

The Great Commission compels us to bring the Gospel to every person and to establish communities of faith in every locale.⁸ By God’s grace we must work to the end that the Gospel of the kingdom is preached among all nations and that there are those redeemed by the Lamb from every people, nation, tribe, and tongue.⁹ The need to send Gospel workers across cultures to the unevangelized remains great. 

Implication 2—Not merely more churches, but more transformational churches are needed

Pioneer evangelism and church planting is only a start. If churches are to be instruments of God’s mission in the world today, they must be experiencing the transformative power of the Gospel; that is to say that individual lives are growing in Christlikeness,¹⁰ congregations are experiencing reconciliation, unity, and love,¹¹ and they are having salt and light influence in their communities.¹² In this way the world will know that we are Jesus’s disciples and God will be glorified.¹³ 

Although 2.6 billion people today self-identify as Christian,¹⁴ unfortunately vast numbers of them are only nominal Christians not experiencing the life-changing power of the Gospel. Furthermore, the church in Europe and North America is in decline.¹⁵ Thus in addition to pioneer evangelism, church renewal is deeply needed and new churches must be planted that give fresh expression to the Gospel, making disciples who obey all that Christ taught us.¹⁶

Implication 3—International partnership in mission is more imperative than ever

The polycentric nature of Christianity has been discussed in chapter 1. We simply note here that not only do 70% of all Christians now live in Asia, Africa, and Latin America,¹⁷ but these nations are also sending nearly half of all international missionaries.¹⁸ Given the ongoing growth of the church in the Global South and the decline of the church in the Global North, partnership in mission has never been more important. Resource sharing, local collaboration, training, and international teams are just a few ways partnerships can be expanded. We can follow the example of the Apostle Paul, whose mission teams were composed of diverse believers from various churches,¹⁹ as well as the example of first century churches that shared their resources in works of compassion and in the advance of the Gospel.²⁰

Implication 4—Mission strategies must be expanded in light of human migration

Historically, mission strategies have been based largely upon geographic expansion and, more recently, on defining unreached people groups. However, globalization, and human migration in particular, have created a much more complex world, opening new opportunities for the Gospel. Throughout Scripture we see that God has sovereignly directed the movement of peoples for his salvation-historical purposes.²¹ The number of people living outside their country of origin has more than doubled since 1990 to 281 million people today (3.6% of the world’s population).²² They are refugees, students, business sojourners, domestic help, migrant workers, and others. Globally there are 108.4 million forcibly displaced persons, of which 62.5 million are internally displaced, 40% being children.²³ This reality presents new opportunities for spiritual, social, and physical ministry. 

People from once restricted or unreached lands have come to live in countries where they are more easily reached with the Gospel.²⁴ Local churches can be mobilized for such cross-cultural ministry in their own backyards. Conversely sometimes migrants are themselves Christians moving to places where they can share the Gospel or reinvigorate existing churches.²⁵ Yet other migrants who have become Christians in their adopted homeland have chosen to return to their country of origin as witnesses for Christ.²⁶ In such cases training can be provided to better equip such persons for the challenges they will face.

Implication 5—Globalization is changing the way we must think about culture and missions

While there are some ethno-linguistic groups that remain relatively isolated and/or resistant to outside influences, globalization has caused the boundaries between cultures to become more fluid and porous than ever. It has intensified contact and interconnectedness of diverse cultures that are increasingly influencing one another. It is sometimes naively thought that globalization is gradually homogenizing cultures, that is, all cultures becoming alike, and that cultural sensitivity in missions is becoming unimportant. It is more accurate, however, to speak of cultural hybridization, whereby a people assimilate various cultural influences without surrendering a sense of their own cultural identity. In other words, culture still matters, but it matters differently than in the past. 

In many ways Christian missions have ridden the wave of globalization. The reduced cost of travel²⁷ and the ease of international communication have further facilitated this. This is especially evidenced in the explosion of international short-term mission projects. Yet relatively few have carefully considered the cultural impact or relevance of their ministry. Cross-cultural ministries must continue to study culture, yet do so in light of the complexities of our contemporary world and the evolving nature of human identities. The Apostle Paul is a great example of not only contextualizing the communication of the Gospel to his various audiences,²⁸ but also dealing with the complexity of local cultural issues with nuance and cultural sensitivity.²⁹

Implication 6—Globalization forces us to redefine the task of contextualization 

Missionaries have often been rightly accused of disregarding or destroying local culture as they evangelized and planted churches. In response, efforts of contextualization have often focused on preserving traditional culture. However, contextualization must more importantly address the question of what it means to be a faithful disciple of Christ in the culture in which the church finds itself today, and not in an idealized culture of the past. As noted above, all cultures continually change and the widespread use of communication technologies, such as the internet,³⁰ has enormously accelerated that change. Contextualization today must help believers navigate rapid cultural change.

The forces of globalization are seemingly ubiquitous, irresistible, and unrelenting.³¹ Its pervasive potential to help or to harm impacts not only the broader society, but also the church. Thus, a growing task of contextualization is to give the church discernment and to guide those forces so that they promote human flourishing.

Implication 7—Mission must address the challenges of serving in a world engulfed in crises

We minister in a fallen world experiencing unprecedented suffering and risks. A survey of 1,500 international leaders identified the top three greatest threats to human well-being: extreme weather, AI-generated misinformation and disinformation, and societal and/or political polarization. Nearly two thirds of them see “a turbulent or stormy outlook, with upheavals and an elevated risk of global catastrophes at best.”³² Regarding criminality, human trafficking ranks second only to financial crimes.³³ In 2021 there were 440,000 victims of homicide, 52 lives every hour, far more than those killed in armed conflicts or by terrorism.³⁴

Despite a growing middle class globally³⁵ and the overall reduction of extreme poverty,³⁶ poverty remains a great challenge. The gap between the rich and the poor remains enormous with the poorest half of the world possessing just 2% of the total of all wealth, and the richest 10% owning 76%.³⁷ 700 million people, 9% of the world’s population, live on less than $2.15 per day.³⁸ Half of the world’s population lacks access to essential health services. Infant mortality in the less economically developed nations is ten times higher than in the most developed countries.⁴⁰ Add to this that the poor are most negatively affected by climate change.⁴¹

While the church may be limited in its ability to influence such developments on a global scale, the love of Christ compels us to respond with compassion, and where possible to address the sources of human suffering.⁴² Only then can the church bear witness to God’s love with credibility.⁴³

We are called to serve others with sacrificial generosity. Given the complexity of these challenges, the church will need to mobilize its brightest minds to respond with wisdom. In a world increasingly filled with disinformation and spiritual deception, God’s people must be known as people of integrity, discernment, and bold witness to truth.⁴⁴

Endnotes

1. 1 Chron. 12:32.
2. Paul adapted the communication of the Gospel to the specific audiences he was addressing Acts 13:16-47; 14:14-17; 17:22-32. He also understood the specific challenges local churches were facing such as false teaching in Galatia, eating meat offered to idols in Corinth, and syncretism and the “philosophy” in Colossae.
3. 2023 World Population Data Sheet,”  PRB, https://www.prb.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/2023-World-Population-Data-Sheet-Booklet.pdf. “Population,” United Nations, https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/population. The overall annual growth rate has slowed from 2.2% in 1960 to .8% in 2022. “World Population Prospects 2024,” United Nations, https://population.un.org/wpp.
4. Gina A. Zurlo, Todd M. Johnson, and Peter F. Crossing, “World Christianity 2024: Fragmentation and Unity,” International Bulletin of Mission Research 48, no. 1 (January 2024): 43–54.
5. Estimates vary widely. The Joshua Project places the number at 7,280 unreached people groups with 3.4 billion people (https://joshuaproject.net). The Center for the Study of Global Christianity places the number at 2.258 billion people. (Zurlo, Johnson, and Crossing. “World Christianity 2024.”)
6. “The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050,” Pew Research Center, April 2, 2015, https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050. Today there are just over 2 billion Muslims, and they are growing at the rate of 1.68% per year compared to 1.08% growth of Christians. Zurlo, Johnson, and Crossing, “World Christianity 2024.”
7. Zurlo, Johnson, and Crossing, “World Christianity 2024.”
8. Matt. 28:19-20.
9. Matt. 24:14; Rev. 5:9-10; 7:9-10.
10. Rom. 12:2; 2 Cor. 3:18; Col. 1:28-29.
11. John 17:20-23; Eph. 2:14-16; 1 John 4:7-12.
12. Matt. 5:13-16.
13. John 13:35; 17:23; Matt. 5:16.
14. Zurlo, Johnson, and Crossing, “World Christianity 2024.”
15. In Europe the number of Christians is declining at a rate of -0.39% and in North America by -0.19% annually. Zurlo, Johnson, and Crossing, “World Christianity 2024.”
16. Matt. 28:19-20.
17. Zurlo, Johnson, and Crossing, “World Christianity 2024.”
18. There are 445,000 missionaries sent from all traditions, growing annually at 1.16%. “The number of missionaries being sent from countries in the Global South is on the rise, with 203,000 (47 percent of the total) in 2021, up from 31,000 (12 percent of the total) in 1970.”  Zurlo, Johnson, and Crossing, “World Christianity 2024,” 17. 
19. The New Testament lists approximately 35 of Paul’s coworkers by name. Nearly every church that Paul planted contributed a coworker to Paul’s expanding network of missionary co-laborers.
20. For example, the offerings taken up in the Gentile churches for the church in Jerusalem (Acts 11:27-30; 24:17; Rom. 15:26-28; 1 Cor. 16:1-4; 2 Cor. 8-9). The church in Philippi supported Paul in his mission work (Phil. 4:15-16), and Paul looked to Rome to support him on the way to Spain (Rom. 15:24).
21. Consider for example the people of Israel in Egypt and in Babylon (Acts 17:26).
22. In 1990 the number was 128 million. “World Migration Report 2022,” IOM, https://publications.iom.int/books/world-migration-report-2022.
23. Internally displaced persons are those forced to leave their home but have not crossed an international border. “Global Trends Report 2022,” UNHCR, https://www.unhcr.org/global-trends-report-2022.
24. Consider the biblical example in Acts 10 of the Roman military officer Cornelius being stationed in Caesarea where he heard the Gospel.
25. A biblical example of this is Priscilla and Aquila, migrating from Rome, where they were believers, to Corinth where they helped plant a church (Acts 18:2).
26. A biblical example is Barnabas, originally from Cyprus, he became a believer in Jerusalem, then returned to Cyprus as a missionary, Acts 4:36; 13:2-4; 15:39.
27. The cost of international airfare today is, when adjusted for inflation, a fifth to a tenth of what it was in 1970. Simple Flying Staff and Omar Memon, “50 Years Of Airfares: The Evolution Of Price And What You Got In 1970 vs. Now,” Simple Flying, May 7, 2024,  https://simpleflying.com/50-years-airfares.
28. Compare Paul’s messages to Jews in Pisidian Antioch (Acts 13:16-41), pagans in Lystra (Acts 14:14-16), and to sophisticated Athenians (Acts 17:22-31).
29. For example, Paul’s instruction regarding the eating of meat offered to idols in 1 Corinthians 8-10. 
30. 67% of the world’s population used the internet in 2023, a 45% increase from 2018. “Statistics,” ITU, https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Pages/stat/default.aspx. 
31. Speculation that the world is entering a period of deglobalization appears unfounded. See for example, Steven A. Altman and Caroline R. Bastian, “The State of Globalization 2023” Harvard Business Review, July 11, 2023, https://hbr.org/2023/07/the-state-of-globalization-in-2023.
32. “The Global Risks Report 2024,” World Economic Forum, https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_Global_Risks_Report_2024.pdf
33. “The Global Risks Report 2024,” World Economic Forum, https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_Global_Risks_Report_2024.pdf.
34. “Homicide rates by region,” United Nations,  https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/12/1144392#:~:text=Homicide%20rates%20by%20region&text=Meanwhile%20rates%20in%20Asia%2C%20Europe,evidenced%20by%20long%2Dterm%20trends. 
35. See, Homi Kharas, The Rise of the Global Middle Class (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Press, 2024).
36. Gilbert Fontana, “Charted: The World’s Working Poor, by Country (1991-2021),” Visual Capitalist, January 24, 2023, https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/where-are-the-working-poor-living.
37. “Executive summary,” World Inequality Report, https://wir2022.wid.world/executive-summary.
38. “Poverty and Inequality Update,” World Bank Group, https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/69d007a1a509633933b92b3804d0e504-0350012024/original/poverty-and-inequality-spring-update-6.pdf.
39. “Transforming Challenge into Action: Expanding Health Coverage for All (2024 Spring Meetings),” World Bank Group,  https://live.worldbank.org/en/event/2024/spring-meetings-expanding-health-coverage-for-all?intcid=ecr_hp_sidekickB_2024-04-15-SMUHCEvent.
40. “2023 World Population Data Sheet,”  PRB, https://www.prb.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/2023-World-Population-Data-Sheet-Booklet.pdf.
41. “Poverty and Inequality Update,” World Bank Group, https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/69d007a1a509633933b92b3804d0e504-0350012024/original/poverty-and-inequality-spring-update-6.pdf.
42. Ps. 82:3-4; Mic. 6:8.
43. 1 John 3:16-18.
44. Prov. 14:25; John 8:32; Phil. 1:9-11; Titus 2:7-8.